Astana Format: A Marginal Effort to Stabilize Syria

The Astana Format was conceived as an alternative diplomatic pathway to stabilize Syria—but has it delivered meaningful peace or merely managed conflict? This Global Eye Intelligence brief delivers a sharp, strategic assessment of the Astana process, examining its origins, objectives, outcomes, and structural limitations amid intensifying regional and global rivalries.

This report analyses how Iran, Turkey, and Russia have leveraged the Astana framework to advance security interests, manage counterterrorism narratives, and shape post-conflict governance discussions—while excluding key stakeholders and civil society actors. It evaluates political resolution efforts, refugee rehabilitation mechanisms, sovereignty concerns, and regional security calculations, placing them within the broader geopolitical contest involving the United States, Europe, China, Israel, and Gulf actors.

Crucially, the analysis highlights why the Astana Format remains a marginal stabilizing force, constrained by limited representation, credibility challenges, and competing power ambitions that continue to fragment Syria’s political future. For policymakers, defence analysts, diplomats, and geopolitical risk professionals, this brief offers essential clarity on why Syria remains unresolved despite years of negotiations.

Peace frameworks that fail quietly often shape wars loudly. Missing these signals is a strategic mistake. Follow Global Eye Intelligence to stay ahead of conflict diplomacy, West Asia power shifts, and emerging fault lines before they redefine regional stability.