Between Moscow & Tbilisi: Sukhum’s Struggle for Autonomy

Abkhazia’s latest political crisis has exposed the deep fault lines running through one of the most sensitive regions in the Caucasus. Between Moscow & Tbilisi is a Global Eye Intelligence strategic brief that unpacks how protests in Sukhum, triggered by a controversial Russia-backed investment agreement, escalated into violence and culminated in the resignation of President Aslan Bzhania.

This report analyses Abkhazia’s long-standing dependence on Moscow, the fears of economic exploitation and loss of autonomy, and the fragile legitimacy of its political institutions. It examines how opposition forces mobilised public anger, how governance quickly descended into paralysis, and why Russia adopted a calibrated response—seeking to preserve influence without overt intervention. The analysis also situates the crisis within Georgia’s unresolved territorial claims and the broader geopolitical contest shaping the South Caucasus.

Beyond immediate unrest, the report highlights structural risks: chronic economic dependency, weak institutional resilience, and the constant tension between sovereignty aspirations and geopolitical reality. For policymakers, investors, diplomats, and geopolitical risk analysts, this brief offers critical foresight into how local unrest can destabilise an entire region.

Caucasian crises rarely remain local—they reshape alignments quietly and decisively. Those who track Abkhazia now will understand the next regional shock before it unfolds. Follow Global Eye Intelligence to stay ahead of emerging geopolitical fault lines.