Between Prosperity & Politics – DRC’s Strategic U-Turn

Between Prosperity & Politics is a high-level intelligence brief by Global Eye Intelligence, unpacking the Democratic Republic of Congo’s sudden withdrawal from a U.S.-mediated Regional Economic Integration Framework intended to anchor peace between Kinshasa and Kigali. The decision—taken at the last moment despite months of negotiations—has derailed Washington’s strategy of linking conflict resolution with trade, investment, and critical mineral cooperation in the Great Lakes region.

This report analyses the political calculus behind President Félix Tshisekedi’s reversal, including domestic electoral pressures, nationalist sentiment, and deep-seated security mistrust over Rwanda’s role in eastern Congo. It evaluates how the collapse of the framework weakens U.S. diplomatic leverage, delays Western investment in minerals, infrastructure, and energy, and opens space for renewed Chinese and Gulf influence. The briefing also outlines regional security risks tied to the M23 insurgency, the credibility crisis facing international mediation, and the growing argument for African-led diplomatic pathways.

⚠️ The DRC sits at the heart of global supply chains and African security. Missing this shift means missing how peace, power, and prosperity are colliding in real time.

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Keywords: DRC geopolitics, Great Lakes peace process, US mediation Africa, Congo Rwanda tensions, critical minerals Africa, political risk DRC, Africa Watch intelligence, Global Eye Intelligence, regional integration Africa.