Darfur’s Collapse: El-Fasher and the Unravelling of Sudan

Sudan’s civil war has crossed a catastrophic threshold. Darfur’s Collapse delivers a hard intelligence assessment of the Rapid Support Forces’ capture of El-Fasher—the last major army-held city in Darfur—and what this means for Sudan’s territorial integrity, humanitarian survival, and regional security.

This Africa Watch report traces how the fall of El-Fasher consolidates RSF control across all Darfur state capitals, pushing Sudan toward de facto partition. Drawing on verified satellite imagery, UN briefings, and humanitarian reporting, the analysis details mass killings, ethnic targeting, forced displacement, and the collapse of medical and relief infrastructure—reviving patterns disturbingly reminiscent of the early 2000s Darfur atrocities.

Beyond the battlefield, the report evaluates international and regional responses, including UN warnings of ethnically motivated violence, African Union condemnation, and growing scrutiny from the International Criminal Court. It also examines the strategic implications of external backing, proxy dynamics, and the failure of mediation efforts—highlighting why Sudan risks becoming a prolonged proxy conflict zone in the Horn of Africa.

For policymakers, security analysts, humanitarian actors, and investors tracking African instability, this report provides early clarity on a crisis that will reshape regional geopolitics.

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