ECOWAS in the Sahel: Power, Fragmentation & the Future of West Africa

The Sahel has become one of the world’s most volatile geopolitical theatres, and the role of ECOWAS now sits at the centre of a historic stress test for regional governance. This Global Eye Intelligence report delivers a clear-eyed assessment of how military coups, jihadist insurgencies, climate stress, and great-power competition are reshaping West Africa’s security architecture.

Focusing on Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the report examines the rise of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and its direct challenge to ECOWAS-led economic integration and political norms. It analyses the withdrawal of Western forces, the growing footprint of Russia’s Africa Corps, China’s expanding infrastructure influence, and the resulting power vacuum exploited by ISIS and Al-Qaeda–linked groups. Beyond security, the report highlights the cascading consequences—trade disruption, humanitarian crises, food insecurity, displacement, and economic fragmentation threatening nearly $150 billion in regional commerce.

Crucially, this report explores whether ECOWAS can adapt—through diplomacy, military coordination, and institutional reform—or risks strategic irrelevance in a rapidly militarising Sahel. Scenario-based insights outline what the bloc’s decisions today will mean for Africa’s stability tomorrow.

Regional orders rarely collapse overnight—they fracture gradually. Those who understand ECOWAS’s Sahel dilemma early will see Africa’s next strategic realignment before it becomes irreversible. Follow Global Eye Intelligence to stay ahead of under-reported geopolitical shifts shaping the Global South.