Fractured Republic: The Central African Republic’s Struggle for Stability and Sovereignty

The Central African Republic (CAR) stands at the crossroads of chronic instability, external interference, and fragile state survival. Fractured Republic is a Global Eye Intelligence Conflict Intelligence Report that delivers a clear, ground-truth assessment of why CAR continues to spiral despite peace agreements, UN deployments, and electoral processes.

The report examines how religious and ethnic polarization, weak governance, and competition over diamonds, gold, and transhumance routes have entrenched armed groups across rural and border regions. It maps the evolution of Seleka and anti-balaka factions, the government’s dependence on external security partners, and the growing footprint of Wagner-linked operatives that has reshaped both battlefield dynamics and civilian trust.

Beyond violence, the assessment highlights the humanitarian and economic collapse—mass displacement, healthcare breakdown, gender-based violence, and shrinking civic space—while evaluating how election cycles risk triggering renewed instability rather than consolidation. Regional spillover risks involving Chad, Sudan, Cameroon, and the DRC are analysed, alongside the limits of international peacekeeping and mediation efforts.

This is not a surface-level country brief. It is conflict intelligence designed for policymakers, Africa analysts, security professionals, and risk assessors.

Global Eye Intelligence is followed by those who track African instability before it becomes a regional contagion. Missing this report means reacting after strategic windows have already closed.