From Emirate to Caliphate: ISKP vs Taliban and the Future of Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s post-2021 landscape is no longer defined solely by Taliban rule—it is being reshaped by an intensifying and dangerous rivalry with the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). From Emirate to Caliphate is a Global Eye Intelligence Conflict Intelligence Report that unpacks how this intra-jihadist conflict is transforming Afghanistan into a renewed epicentre of global extremism.

The report examines the ideological divide between the Taliban’s nationalist Islamist governance model and ISKP’s transnational Salafi-jihadist ambition. It traces ISKP’s rise through suicide bombings, targeted assassinations, and sectarian attacks—particularly against Shia and Hazara communities—highlighting how the Taliban’s inability to fully suppress ISKP erodes regime credibility and internal security. Operational comparisons reveal stark contrasts in structure, tactics, and geographic concentration, especially in eastern Afghanistan.

Beyond Afghanistan, the assessment maps regional and global repercussions: cross-border infiltration into Pakistan, propaganda narratives affecting India and Kashmir, heightened border security responses in Central Asia, and the vacuum left by reduced Western counterterrorism presence. Strategic recommendations outline intelligence cooperation, conditional engagement, financial disruption, and long-term de-radicalisation pathways.

This is decision-grade intelligence for policymakers, security analysts, and risk professionals. Global Eye Intelligence is followed by those who track extremist evolution before it metastasises across regions. Missing this report means confronting the next wave of transnational jihadism too late.