Greater Sunrise Project - Energy, Geopolitics & Power Shifts in the Pacific

The Greater Sunrise gas field is no longer just an energy project—it is a geopolitical pivot. This Strategic Intelligence Report analyses how East Timor’s renewed outreach to Chinese energy firms for the development of the Greater Sunrise field is reshaping power equations between Australia, China, and the wider Pacific region.

The report traces the historical deadlock between East Timor and Australia over gas processing routes, revenue-sharing formulas, and stalled development despite vast reserves. It explains why Dili, facing economic fragility after the depletion of the Bayu-Undan field, is exploring China-backed options that promise faster monetisation and infrastructure investment. The analysis evaluates Australia’s counter-offer packages, revenue incentives, and strategic anxiety over growing Chinese presence near its maritime periphery.

Beyond energy economics, the report dissects the broader geopolitical implications: China’s expanding Pacific footprint, risks of debt dependence, strategic access to critical infrastructure, and the potential erosion of Western influence in island states. Scenario analysis outlines pathways ranging from balanced diversification to strategic over-dependence with long-term security consequences.

Built for policy planners, energy investors, geopolitical risk analysts, defence observers, and Indo-Pacific strategists, this intelligence product turns a gas dispute into forward-looking strategic foresight.

Energy projects quietly redraw alliances. Following Global Eye Intelligence ensures you identify these inflection points early—before infrastructure becomes influence and influence becomes leverage.