Guinea-Bissau in Turmoil: Coups, Suspensions, and West Africa’s Democratic Stress Test

Guinea-Bissau’s latest military takeover has once again placed the country at the centre of West Africa’s democratic crisis. This intelligence brief analyses the political rupture that followed the sudden seizure of power, prompting swift suspension by the African Union and ECOWAS and reigniting fears of entrenched military interference in civilian governance. Far from an isolated event, the episode reflects Guinea-Bissau’s chronic vulnerability to coups, factional politics, and the corrosive influence of illicit trafficking networks.

The report unpacks the contested legitimacy of the takeover, the suspension of electoral processes, and the rapid installation of a transitional military-led authority. It examines how drug trafficking routes, elite rivalries, and weakened institutions continue to intersect, creating a cycle where elections trigger instability rather than resolution. Regional and international responses are assessed in detail, highlighting why AU and ECOWAS are enforcing zero-tolerance norms more aggressively amid growing coup fatigue across West Africa.

For policymakers, investors, security analysts, and Africa watchers, this brief offers clear-eyed insight into whether Guinea-Bissau’s transition can break from its past—or merely delay the next rupture. Those who follow Global Eye Intelligence gain early access to such high-risk political assessments, before instability spills across borders, policy options narrow, and strategic blind spots become costly.