Ivory Coast’s Quest – Between Order and Democracy

Ivory Coast’s Quest – Between Order and Democracy is a timely intelligence brief by Global Eye Intelligence, analysing Côte d’Ivoire’s tense political climate as the country approaches its October 2025 presidential election. Long considered a post-conflict success story in West Africa, Ivory Coast is now navigating a precarious balance between stability and democratic regression. This report unpacks the government’s nationwide ban on protests, the deployment of tens of thousands of security personnel, and the exclusion of major opposition figures—moves officially framed as preventive security but widely perceived as narrowing civic and political space.

The briefing situates these developments within Ivory Coast’s troubled electoral history, marked by coups, civil conflict, and election-linked violence, while assessing the implications of President Alassane Ouattara’s fourth-term bid. It evaluates risks of militarization, underground opposition mobilisation, disinformation, and ethnic polarization, alongside shifting regional dynamics following France’s military drawdown and growing external influence in francophone West Africa.

⚠️ Ivory Coast is at a crossroads—and the warning signals are subtle but decisive. Missing this analysis means missing early indicators of instability in one of West Africa’s most strategically important states.
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Keywords: Ivory Coast election 2025, Côte d’Ivoire political risk, West Africa security analysis, Alassane Ouattara fourth term, ECOWAS stability, Africa Watch intelligence, Global Eye Intelligence, electoral violence risk Africa.