Madagascar’s Power Fractures – When the Army Turns Inward

Madagascar’s Power Fractures is a high-alert intelligence brief by Global Eye Intelligence, tracking one of the most dangerous political moments in Madagascar’s recent history. What began as protests over power and water shortages has escalated into a systemic crisis as CAPSÁT—the elite army unit that once brought President Andry Rajoelina to power—openly sided with Gen Z–led demonstrators, triggering allegations of an attempted coup and exposing deep fractures within the security establishment.

This report analyses the emergence of parallel command structures, defections within the gendarmerie, and the erosion of presidential authority amid growing uncertainty over succession pathways. It evaluates constitutional scenarios, risks of a military-led transition, and the likelihood of governance paralysis if rival power centres consolidate. The briefing also maps regional and international implications, including threats to Indian Ocean maritime security, commodity supply chains, investor confidence, and SADC-led stability mechanisms.

⚠️ Madagascar is standing at the edge of a 2009-style rupture—but with far higher regional stakes. Ignoring this moment means missing early-warning signals of state fragmentation and military realignment.
Follow Africa Watch @ Global Eye Intelligence for real-time intelligence on Africa’s most volatile political flashpoints—before today’s unrest becomes tomorrow’s regional crisis.

Keywords: Madagascar coup risk, CAPSÁT defection analysis, military fragmentation Africa, Gen Z protests Madagascar, Indian Ocean security risk, political instability Madagascar, Africa Watch intelligence, Global Eye Intelligence, African political risk report.