Madagascar’s Power Shift – Militarising Governance Amid Unrest

Madagascar’s Power Shift is a sharp intelligence brief by Global Eye Intelligence, analysing President Andry Rajoelina’s decision to appoint Army General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as Prime Minister amid sustained, youth-led protests across Madagascar’s major cities. Framed as a move to restore order and stabilise service delivery, the appointment marks a decisive turn toward militarised governance—raising critical questions about legitimacy, accountability, and the future of civilian rule.

This report examines the drivers behind the power shift, including chronic electricity and water shortages, Gen Z–led mobilisation, and growing urban frustration with political elites. It dissects the new cabinet’s military-heavy composition, the government’s reliance on coercive security responses, and the mounting risks of authoritarian consolidation. The analysis also evaluates opposition dynamics, casualty trends, humanitarian concerns, and how international actors—from the UN and AU to regional partners—are balancing calls for restraint with fears of wider instability in the Indian Ocean region.

⚠️ Madagascar is no longer a peripheral story—it is a frontline case of how African governments respond when legitimacy erodes. Missing this intelligence means missing early signals of a deeper political rupture.
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Keywords: Madagascar political crisis, Rajoelina government analysis, militarisation of governance Africa, Gen Z protests Madagascar, Indian Ocean security risk, political risk intelligence Africa, Africa Watch report, Global Eye Intelligence.