Ouattara’s Fourth Term: Stability, Fatigue, and the Succession Question

Côte d’Ivoire has reaffirmed political continuity—but at a visible democratic cost. Ouattara’s Fourth Term delivers a structured intelligence assessment of President Alassane Ouattara’s re-election for a fourth mandate, secured amid historically low voter turnout, limited opposition participation, and growing questions around succession planning.

This Africa Watch report analyses how constitutional restructuring, opposition disqualifications, and voter fatigue converged to produce a decisive but uneven electoral outcome. While the vote proceeded peacefully and reassured markets in the short term, the report highlights deeper structural challenges: declining civic engagement, narrowing political competition, and the long-term risks of leadership concentration in one of West Africa’s most economically significant states.

Beyond domestic politics, the analysis situates Côte d’Ivoire’s election within a regional context where extended presidential tenures are increasingly scrutinised. It examines implications for investor confidence, ECOWAS governance norms, and Abidjan’s continued role as a regional economic anchor in infrastructure, agriculture, and finance.

For policymakers, investors, and strategic analysts, this report offers early clarity on whether stability today may translate into uncertainty tomorrow.

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Because political continuity can mask emerging risk. Africa Watch tracks Africa’s power transitions before fatigue turns into fracture.