Pakistan on the Brink: Political Unrest, State Response, and the Risk of Systemic Breakdown

Pakistan is experiencing one of its most volatile internal crises in recent history, and the consequences extend far beyond street protests. This intelligence product by Global Eye Intelligence offers a structured, ground-level assessment of the political unrest triggered by the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan—and why it represents a deeper rupture between the state, the military establishment, and public legitimacy.

The analysis traces the origins of the unrest, examining how mass mobilisation by PTI supporters, violent clashes with security forces, and sweeping crackdowns have exposed institutional fragility. It details the humanitarian, economic, and social impacts of prolonged instability—ranging from disrupted commerce and communication shutdowns to deepening political polarisation across urban centres like Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

Crucially, this product moves beyond events to assess what comes next. It evaluates scenarios of escalation versus de-escalation, the absence of credible dialogue mechanisms, and the role of international pressure—particularly in the context of high-visibility diplomatic forums. Strategic recommendations outline why electoral reform, mediated dialogue, and governance reset are no longer optional but essential for stability.

Why this matters now: Pakistan’s internal trajectory directly affects regional security, economic confidence, and crisis contagion risks. Those who track these signals early can anticipate instability before it spills outward.