Russia in the Caucasus: Power, Mediation, and Strategic Recalibration

Russia’s position in the South Caucasus is undergoing a quiet but consequential recalibration. Russia in the Caucasus is a Global Eye Intelligence Strategic Affairs Report that dissects how Moscow is repositioning itself amid shifting alliances, post–Nagorno-Karabakh realities, and the pressures of the Ukraine war.

The report analyses Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Azerbaijan and his engagement with Ilham Aliyev, highlighting newly signed agreements spanning healthcare, food safety, climate cooperation, labour regulation, and investment promotion. It explains why these seemingly technical agreements carry deeper strategic meaning—reinforcing Russia’s relevance in a region where its peacekeeping footprint has narrowed and its influence is being tested.

Beyond diplomacy, the assessment traces the historical arc of Russia’s role in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations, the fallout from Azerbaijan’s 2023 military success in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Armenia’s growing strategic drift away from Moscow. It evaluates trade growth, energy and transport corridors, cultural and educational ties, and Russia’s continued ambition to act as a mediator despite diminishing leverage.

This is decision-grade regional intelligence for policymakers, analysts, and strategic investors. Global Eye Intelligence is followed by those who track geopolitical adjustments before they redefine regional orders. Missing this report means understanding the Caucasus only after alignments have already shifted.