South China Sea Code of Conduct: Law, Power & the Battle for Maritime Order

The South China Sea sits at the heart of one of the world’s most consequential geopolitical contests—where international law, military power, and economic lifelines collide. This Global Eye Intelligence report delivers a sharp, strategic assessment of ASEAN’s renewed push to transition from a non-binding declaration to a binding Code of Conduct (CoC) with China, and why this shift could redefine Indo-Pacific stability.

The analysis traces the historical roots of the dispute, China’s expanding military footprint and island militarisation, and ASEAN’s growing insistence on enforceable legal mechanisms under UNCLOS. It evaluates how a binding CoC could recalibrate regional power dynamics, strengthen smaller states’ bargaining power, and influence the strategic calculations of external actors such as the United States, Japan, and India. Equally, it examines the risks—Chinese resistance, selective compliance, and the possibility of heightened confrontation if negotiations stall.

More than a diplomatic debate, this report frames the CoC as a test case for the future of rules-based order at sea, with implications for global trade worth trillions of dollars, energy security, and freedom of navigation.

Maritime rules are being written now—not later. Those who track the South China Sea early will understand the next Indo-Pacific crisis before it unfolds. Follow Global Eye Intelligence to stay ahead of strategic inflection points shaping Asia’s maritime future.