The Bullet & The Ballot: Ecuador’s Battle for Stability Between Chaos & Control

This Americas Compass intelligence brief unpacks Ecuador’s explosive political crisis following the October 2025 assassination attempt on President Daniel Noboa. Blending field-level detail with strategic analysis, the report explores Indigenous mobilization, rising crime, state securitization, legitimacy challenges, and the widening divide between government authority and civil society. It highlights how Ecuador stands at a crossroads—between democratic renewal or deeper instability—with implications for regional governance across Latin America. Essential for policymakers, corporates, analysts, and risk observers tracking South America’s volatile political landscape.

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