The Randrianirina Transition: Madagascar’s Military Reset and the Future of Governance

Madagascar has entered a decisive and volatile phase as Colonel Michael Randrianirina leads a military-dominated transitional government following widespread unrest, institutional breakdown, and economic distress. The Randrianirina Transition delivers a sharp, intelligence-driven assessment of how inflation, governance failure, and popular mobilisation converged to trigger the island nation’s fourth coup since independence—and why this moment matters far beyond Antananarivo.

This Africa Watch report dissects the internal power structures shaping the transition, the role of elite military units, and the credibility gaps facing the proposed 18–24 month roadmap to elections. It also maps international responses from the African Union, SADC, the UN, and key external stakeholders, highlighting how diplomatic caution, aid suspensions, and regional security concerns are redefining Madagascar’s strategic posture.

Beyond domestic politics, the report explains how instability in Madagascar could affect maritime security, regional cooperation, and Indian Ocean geopolitics—making it essential reading for policymakers, investors, researchers, and strategic planners tracking Africa’s evolving risk landscape.

🔍 Why follow Africa Watch @ Global Eye Intelligence?
Because moments like this move fast—and those who rely on headlines arrive too late. Africa Watch gives you early signals, structural analysis, and forward-looking intelligence before transitions harden into new realities.